Improving 3D Geostatistical temperature model of Germany for shallow geothermal development

Anees, Muhammad & Holstein, Björn & Delfs, Jens-Olaf & Agemar, Thorsten & Moeck, Inga. (2025).

Improving 3D Geostatistical temperature model of Germany for shallow geothermal development.

Abstract

Shallow geothermal energy (<400 m) is readily accessible and can be rapidly scaled using heat pump technologies, offering a significant advantage over semi-deep and deep geothermal resources. In alignment with Germany’s heat transition goals, the WärmeGut project aims to provide critical data to support the expansion of shallow geothermal energy systems. Accurate subsurface temperature data, particularly its lateral and vertical distributions, is essential for assessing the potential of heat pumps. While the current 3D temperature model of Germany provides temperature profiles down to 5 km below sea level, its near-surface resolution is insufficient for shallow geothermal applications. This study seeks to improve the model within the upper 500 m by integrating additional temperature data from both surface sources (satellite observations and weather stations) and subsurface measurements (groundwater wells and boreholes). Currently, shallow borehole data from Rhineland-Palatinate are corrected for temperature effects related to the drilling process and groundwater pumping. The integrated dataset will be interpolated in 3D space using universal kriging in the ISATIS ® software, which accounts for trends in subsurface temperature distribution. This enhanced geostatistical approach will update and refine the Germany-wide 3D temperature model, improving its utility for shallow geothermal energy development. The improved 3D temperature model will be published in the web-based geothermal information system, GeotIS, upon completion.

Key words

Shallow Geothermal Energy, Land Surface Temperature, Geostatisical Interpolation, Germany